From the floor of the New York Stock Exchange, Jim Lebenthal, Chief Market Strategist at Cerity Partners, shared a constructive outlook on U.S. equities, emphasizing that despite strong double-digit returns over the past three years, the stock market still has room to move higher. Lebenthal pointed to solid economic fundamentals, continued earnings growth, and an accommodative Federal Reserve as key drivers. With rate cuts expected, quantitative tightening halted, and liquidity rising, he sees a powerful combination supporting equities into 2025 and beyond.
Lebenthal highlighted expectations for approximately 15% earnings growth in the S&P 500 next year. Even if valuation multiples compress modestly, he believes this could still translate into high single-digit returns, which he views as reasonable given current conditions. He also underscored the stimulative impact expected from the upcoming budget bill in 2026, benefiting both corporations and consumers.
However, he cautioned about identifiable risks, particularly potential Supreme Court decisions related to trade tariffs and the independence of the Federal Reserve. Either outcome could introduce volatility toward late 2025 and early 2026. Beyond those, Lebenthal acknowledged the ever-present “unknown risks,” including geopolitical conflicts or major natural disasters.
From a macro perspective, he emphasized the importance of monitoring the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield, currently near 4.1%, along with the dollar. Both indicators suggest stability for now, despite fiscal challenges in Europe and rising rates in Japan.
On Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies, Lebenthal noted growing interest but maintained a cautious stance. While crypto is often described as a hedge or “digital gold,” he argued that it has behaved more like a risk-on asset, remaining closely correlated with the NASDAQ. As a result, Cerity Partners currently favors equities over crypto, while continuing to reassess the space on a daily basis.
Overall, Lebenthal remains constructive, disciplined, and data-driven—bullish on stocks, watchful on risks, and open-minded about where crypto may ultimately fit in future portfolios.
