Broadcast from the floor of the New York Stock Exchange, this FE Macro Leaders at the Bell conversation features Lawrence, Chief Investment Officer of Balfour Capital Group, discussing energy, metals, equities, and global market risks. Speaking on January 14, he explains that current energy markets are highly fragmented, but oil presents clear value at current levels. His base case anticipates oil moving toward $70 per barrel over the next six to eight months, with potential downside near $58, emphasizing that geopolitical dynamics remain a critical driver.
Lawrence stresses that geopolitics—particularly sanctions on Iran and the long-term damage to Venezuelan production capacity—cannot be ignored. He characterizes the situation as a geopolitical energy war, noting that refining constraints and years-long recovery timelines limit near-term supply. At Balfour, risk management and capital preservation are core principles, reinforcing the importance of diversification amid unprecedented volatility across commodity markets.
Turning to metals, Lawrence highlights silver’s historic and “biblical” move, driven by physical market dynamics and refinery discounting. He expects continued volatility, with silver capable of sharp pullbacks but also a potential surge toward $100. Gold is also positioned to rally, especially ahead of Federal Reserve decisions and global policy discussions at Davos World Economic Forum. He adds that consolidation among major commodity firms is accelerating and that silver’s long-term role in technology—from smartphones to data centers—remains structurally bullish.
On equities, Lawrence sees strong sentiment pushing the Dow toward 50,000, while warning that elevated tech valuations point to sector rotation. He highlights opportunities in pharmaceuticals and alternatives, including crypto, which he believes could test and potentially exceed $100,000. While bullish overall, he expects pullbacks and urges strategic positioning, concluding that the next 180 days will be critical for global markets and economic direction.
