In this interview from the floor of the New York Stock Exchange, Jeff Hirsch analyzes current volatility through a historical and seasonal lens. He highlights that markets are reacting sharply to geopolitical headlines, particularly tied to President Trump’s policy shifts, but notes that similar patterns have appeared before—especially early-year turbulence followed by recoveries.
Hirsch points to a recurring seasonal trend during Trump-era periods, where Q1 volatility often leads to a bottom and subsequent rally. However, he cautions that 2026 is a midterm election year, historically marked by weakness in Q2 and Q3, making the near-term environment more challenging. He advises against chasing rallies and instead recommends disciplined positioning as volatility unfolds.
From a strategic standpoint, he differentiates between trading and long-term investing, emphasizing that high volatility (e.g., elevated VIX levels) may create tactical opportunities but not necessarily justify aggressive long-term entry points.
On asset classes, Hirsch is cautious on both gold and Bitcoin, suggesting that recent rallies may have already peaked from a seasonal perspective. He sees limited upside in the near term and recommends taking profits rather than adding exposure.
Regarding the economy, he is not overly concerned about employment, noting that initial jobless claims remain stable. However, he warns that prolonged high oil prices could eventuallyضغط the economy.
Overall, Hirsch frames the market as entering a historically weak seasonal window, advocating caution, patience, and selective positioning amid ongoing volatility.
