In this interview from the floor of the New York Stock Exchange, strategist Paul Hickey explains a market environment dominated by headlines rather than fundamentals. He describes current conditions as “tweet-by-tweet,” where geopolitical developments—particularly the war involving Iran—are driving short-term volatility and overshadowing traditional valuation metrics.
Hickey notes that while fundamentals remain intact, investor sentiment is being shaped by uncertainty and rapid news flow, creating whipsaw price action. Elevated gasoline prices, reaching historic levels, introduce a psychological drag on consumers, even if structural energy dependence in the U.S. is lower than in the past. He warns that prolonged conflict could gradually erode confidence, even if immediate economic damage is not yet fully visible.
From an investment perspective, he emphasizes sector positioning. While energy has outperformed during the geopolitical spike, he views this as temporary. Instead, he highlights long-term opportunities in technology—particularly semiconductors and software. Semiconductors remain essential to the digital economy, with companies like Intel benefiting from the next phase of AI focused on CPUs. Meanwhile, software appears oversold, presenting contrarian opportunities as negative sentiment peaks.
Hickey also stresses the importance of stock-level dispersion, noting that despite a flat index, many individual names are seeing significant gains or losses. He advocates focusing on “earnings triple plays”—companies that beat earnings and revenue while raising guidance—as a strategy to identify consistent outperformers.
Overall, he encourages investors to stay disciplined, look beyond short-term noise, and position around long-term structural trends while volatility creates selective opportunities.
