Steve Alain Lawrence of Balfour Capital Group offers a cautious institutional view from the NYSE trading floor, arguing that 2025 will not deliver a Santa Claus rally. He expects markets to finish the year around current levels—near 6,600—as professional investors lock in strong mid-year gains rather than chase late-stage upside.
Even if the U.S. economy holds a Goldilocks profile and tariffs remain in place, he does not see the S&P reaching 7,200, noting that the magnitude of gains already achieved makes a melt-up unlikely.
Steve stresses that liquidity keeps the U.S. as the only true global venue for large allocators, far outpacing markets like Petrobras’ $175M/day volume. While capital could rotate back into U.S. assets if international markets weaken, he still maintains a 6,600 year-end outcome.
He aligns with cautious voices such as Jamie Dimon, Stevie Cohen, the Bank of England, and Paul Tudor Jones, arguing that although a rally may appear, the risk of a pullback remains high.
Smart money, he says, protects performance rather than chasing highs.
