Mark Newton, Partner and Head of Technical Strategy at Fundstrat, outlines his market outlook across equities, yields, crypto, and oil. He remains bullish into year-end, expecting the S&P 500 to finish 2025 near 7,000, though a pullback toward 6,800 in late October should create buying opportunities.
Despite a 35% YTD gain, participation is narrow and speculation is rising, yet Newton believes trends remain intact. He views the drop in the 10-year yield as sentiment-driven, with 4% acting more as a psychological barrier; he expects a move to 3.90% before yields rebound, supported by multiple Fed cuts over the next year.
Looking to 2026, he anticipates a midterm-cycle correction of 15–20% in the first half of the year, not a recessionary decline, with tech weakness as the key trigger.
On crypto, Newton is bullish but sees altcoins—Ethereum, Solana, XRP—outperforming as Bitcoin peaks around 130–135K before correcting.
Oil likely falls into the low 50s or even the 40s before turning higher, with February 2026 as the prime entry point.
He ends by advising investors to ignore fear cycles and focus on trends, earnings, and disciplined positioning.
