Jim Bianco, founder of Bianco Research, says the market’s rebound came from a temporary pause in tariff escalation, not a true resolution. The U.S. began 2025 with 10% tariffs, now sits at 30%, and only received a 90-day reprieve from punitive levels. That’s why he believes the S&P 500 around 5,800–5,900 is appropriately priced for current uncertainty.
The key catalyst is September 15, when the pause ends; until Washington decides whether to restore, freeze, or unwind tariffs, Bianco expects choppy, sideways trading driven by headlines.
Inflation data so far reflects the pre-tariff economy, so he anticipates firmer inflation, stronger growth, and a higher 10-year yield ahead — potentially pressuring equities.
He sees reaching 6,200–6,300 as possible only if tariffs fall; under the present regime, multiples are unlikely to expand.
There is a credible path to either revisiting the lows or staying range-bound depending on tariff outcomes.
Bitcoin, in his view, will behave as a leveraged version of the stock market through year-end, rising more on rallies and falling harder on corrections.
